Behind the post match numbers 2011 given by NRMP
NRMP Chart click on the image to see a larger version
These numbers all come from the public release by the National Residency Match Program.
1. This only discusses those who made themselves eligible for the match so it does not include those who withdrew or pre-matched
2. Some of the better IMGs probably pre-matched which skews these numbers somewhat but if you are an IMG and do not pre-match, you will have a hard time matching
3. About 50% of the US IMGs matched which for the most part, is probably Caribbean students. This includes students who have been in the match more than once and those who took longer than 4 years to be eligible for the match. From my observations of not only my own university but also friends I have from other Caribbean universities, I estimate that approximately 50% of the students will eventually make it to the match. The other 50% fall off the ledge and never make it. Of those 50% that do make it, I think only about 25% become eligible for the match in 4 years (the normal time line) where the other 25% either take too long to study, too much vacation, or fail one or more of the steps. So once you make it to the match, you have a 50% chance of matching.
Ultimately, if you are Caribbean student on day 1 of Semester 1, you have about a 6% chance of matching in 4 years. Pretty small. Overall, you have about a 25% chance of matching. Do you like those chance, I do not. Fortunately I made it through. So ultimately, you had better stick out in a positive way. Do not use the other students as your benchmark, use US students at US schools.
Also, if you are a pure foreign student at a foreign school then your best chance of matching is in internal medicine over any other program.